Traders Take Profits Ahead of Weekend

March 20th, 2009

Week End Position Squaring Forces a Pause

Eventually, we all knew the USD would consolidate and begin to show signs of life again. Obviously, it was just a matter of time, and of how far the big dollar could fall, before that eventuality came to pass. Now traders have begun to take a sober second look at the market’s position ahead of the weekend, and have chosen to book profits and bolster the reserves in their respective war chests so as to be best prepared for whatever the market brings us next week.  Most asset classes have seen a profit-taking inspired retracement from the levels achieved this week, and the dollar index is trading up by more than 0.60%.

Equities in Asia turned lower overnight, with the Hang Seng shedding 2.26% of its value while the Nikkei limped to deliver a 0.33% decline at the close. The FTSE in London has traded roughly 0.4% lower as we head towards the close, while the CAC in Paris and DAX in Frankfurt look to at least finish the day in the black, though not by very much.  Equity futures are pointing to a slightly positive opening in New York, while Toronto looks to be in the mood to see a turn lower. This would most likely be because commodities have softened, having this week’s outsized rally in hard assets as a hedge against long-term inflation. Read Full Article »

Currencies Break Out

March 19th, 2009

USD Pounded Amid Fed’s Expansion of Quantitative Easing

The US Federal Reserve announced yesterday that next week it would embark on a program involving the purchase of up to $300B USD in government Treasuries, officially kicking off the governmental portion of their quantitative easing measures. In monetizing the debt, the Fed is essentially removing the US government from the private market as it relates to the competition for today’s scarce investment capital. That being said, $300B essentially amounts to the proverbial “drop in the bucket” when measured against the trillions of US Treasuries outstanding, or even the debt taken on by the Treasury to facilitate its various bailout schemes in the past few months. Nonetheless, the Fed’s printing presses, which have been on standby for quite some time, are now about to be slowly revved up, and the USD is being pounded across the board with the most significant currency breakout to the top-side that we’ve seen since the early days of this financial crisis. Read Full Article »