Traders Take Profits Ahead of Weekend

March 20th, 2009

Week End Position Squaring Forces a Pause

Eventually, we all knew the USD would consolidate and begin to show signs of life again. Obviously, it was just a matter of time, and of how far the big dollar could fall, before that eventuality came to pass. Now traders have begun to take a sober second look at the market’s position ahead of the weekend, and have chosen to book profits and bolster the reserves in their respective war chests so as to be best prepared for whatever the market brings us next week.  Most asset classes have seen a profit-taking inspired retracement from the levels achieved this week, and the dollar index is trading up by more than 0.60%.

Equities in Asia turned lower overnight, with the Hang Seng shedding 2.26% of its value while the Nikkei limped to deliver a 0.33% decline at the close. The FTSE in London has traded roughly 0.4% lower as we head towards the close, while the CAC in Paris and DAX in Frankfurt look to at least finish the day in the black, though not by very much.  Equity futures are pointing to a slightly positive opening in New York, while Toronto looks to be in the mood to see a turn lower. This would most likely be because commodities have softened, having this week’s outsized rally in hard assets as a hedge against long-term inflation. Read Full Article »

AUD/USD Rallies 2 Cents Overnight

March 19th, 2009

The Aussie dollar has opened above .6700 this morning after the US Federal Reserve made an unaminous decision to keep the Federal funds rate unchanged and to begin buying US securities triggering a US dollar sell-off.  It is now the seventh consecutive local session where the Aussie dollar has opened firmer and the strongest start to the local session since February 10. Read Full Article »

Currencies Break Out

March 19th, 2009

USD Pounded Amid Fed’s Expansion of Quantitative Easing

The US Federal Reserve announced yesterday that next week it would embark on a program involving the purchase of up to $300B USD in government Treasuries, officially kicking off the governmental portion of their quantitative easing measures. In monetizing the debt, the Fed is essentially removing the US government from the private market as it relates to the competition for today’s scarce investment capital. That being said, $300B essentially amounts to the proverbial “drop in the bucket” when measured against the trillions of US Treasuries outstanding, or even the debt taken on by the Treasury to facilitate its various bailout schemes in the past few months. Nonetheless, the Fed’s printing presses, which have been on standby for quite some time, are now about to be slowly revved up, and the USD is being pounded across the board with the most significant currency breakout to the top-side that we’ve seen since the early days of this financial crisis. Read Full Article »

Leggero rialzo per la moneta unica

March 18th, 2009

Intraday e spunti operativi.

Seduta in leggero rialzo per la moneta unica che si attesta in area 1.30 contro Il dollaro. Le attese sono per una possibile verifica di area 1,3040, ed in superamento a 1,3080. Segnali ribassisti in rottura di area 1,2930.

Avvenimenti Giornalieri

Giappone Leading indicator gennaio rivisto (0:50)
Spagna vendite dettaglio gennaio (9:00)
Italia Produzione industriale gennaio (10:00)
UK mercato lavoro febbraio (10:30)
USA Prezzi al consumo febbraio (13:30)
CFFMI gennaio (13:30)
partite correnti 4° trimestre (13:30)
Prezzi al consumo febbraio (13:30)

Commento alla giornata precedente.

Il pessimismo del Fondo monetario internazionale, che ha rivisto al ribasso le stime sulla crescita e prevede ora un’ economia globale in contrazione dello 0,6%, ha inciso relativamente sulla fiducia degli operatori che hanno assistito al rally di Wall Street sul finale grazie al dato positivo sulle nuove costruzioni ed alla ripresa dell’inflazione; di segno opposto l’andamento delle contrattazioni delle piazze finanziarie europee che hanno archiviato al ribasso una seduta altalenante. Su un mercato valutario decisamente volatile, l’euro continua a mostrare la sua forza aggiornando i massimi contro le principali valute. L’eurodollaro ha toccato quota 1.3066 dopo che il ritorno del biglietto verde aveva costretto l’euro a ripiegare a 1.2930 rompendo al ribasso il supporto individuato al livello di prezzo 1.2945; il minimo di ieri ha però permesso all’EURUSD di rimbalzare con decisione e riportarsi ampiamente sopra 1.3000. Anche l’euroyen viaggia sui massimi e si muove con un certo “nervosismo” in unA banda di oscillazione compresa tra 128.05 e 128.80, ultimo massimo aggiornato nella notte. Alta volatilità è possibilità per l’euro di strappare oltre quota 129, data l’attuale debolezza dello yen. La divisa nipponica stà infatti subendo il ritorno delle altre valuta, anche se di fatto contro il dollaro mostra una certà lateralità. Lo stato di forma dell’euro si manifesta anche contro l’altra divisa che nelle ultime sedute sembrava essere tornata in salute, ovvero la sterlina: EURGBP poco sotto quota 0.9300 e attenzione posta al livello di resistenza 0.9520 e quindi sui massimi di gennaio. Il cable si tiene sopra 1.4000, lontano dai massimi di inizio settimana di 1.4231.

 

By Custom House

Kiwi Steady As Markets Settle

March 18th, 2009

The Kiwi starts today in a very similar position to yesterday’s opening levels after a day of range-bound trading.

With no major data releases for the rest of the week, the Kiwi was forced to follow the market during the local session, which saw little movement. Little was gained from the release of the RBA’s minutes from their meeting earlier this month – the document showed that the RBA was content to adopt a wait-and-see approach towards the effects of its previous easing, and offered no real insight to the timing and scale of future movements. Read Full Article »