Australia Startled by Sudden Contraction

March 4th, 2009

Australian Economy Contracts Unexpectedly

The day after the Reserve Bank of Australia elected to hold rates at 3.25%, the release of the country’s growth figures confirmed that the economy is in fact officially contracting. Yesterday, the bank judged that previously-provided monetary and fiscal stimuli would provide the economy with the necessary jolt for the rest of the year to dodge a more serious recession (though, to be completely fair, they did make note of the ‘”economic weakness at present”). The GBP number, however, came in at -0.5% for the last quarter of 2008, marking a significant deterioration from Q3’s 0.1% increase. As could be expected, the usual suspects, housing and exports, were the cause of the decline: housing investment fell 1.2% over the quarter, and exports, on which Australia depends heavily for economic growth, dropped 0.8%. This number represented the worst quarterly reading since 2001, and confirms that no stone will go unturned as economies reel with the lasting effects of the credit boom bust. Read Full Article »

Obama Returns to Optimistic Tone

February 25th, 2009

President Sells “Yes We Can” Image on Economy

“We will rebuild, we will recover, and the United States of America will emerge stronger than before,” declared President Obama before a joint session of Congress last night in a State of the Union-style address.  Delivering a message that “the weight of this crisis will not determine the destiny of this nation,” Obama took a decisive turn with his messaging last night and returned to the more upbeat and optimistic tone that defined his stump speeches during the campaign.  After taking great care to explain the economic crisis and its far-reaching implications in the weeks following his inauguration, Obama took a much more balanced approach last night.  Though some would argue that his message was simply more upbeat and in the tone of his natural speaking style, it is also probably safe to argue that the change in message was a deliberate attempt to try to revive consumer confidence amid the turmoil.  After all, if American consumers simply keep hearing how bad things are with little hope of seeing a near-term improvement, they are less likely to spend those stimulus cheques that are about to grace their mailboxes.  And a populace that saves stimulus cheques instead of spending them is one that is not likely to climb out of a recession any time soon. Read Full Article »