Today’s Commentary
A round of better than expected data overnight kept the kiwi well supported but market prices have remained stubbornly calm.
In the US the ISM index of factory activity and pending home sales figures both came in ahead of analysts’ forecasts and elsewhere the UK and China also enjoyed positive manufacturing releases. The data had prices from commodities to equities on the rise but the rally was short lived. Before the week is out we will have seen interest rate decisions out of Australia, the US, UK and Europe as well as the monthly US unemployment update and a G20 meeting. With the shadow of these releases looming over market calendars traders have been reluctant to take strong positions ahead of a potentially volatile period. This reluctance kept price action muted and risky plays were taken off the table as quickly as they arrived.
So as we open this morning the NZD is only slightly up from yesterday lows. The RBA interest rate decision is due at 4:30 local time. The bank is widely expected to announce a 0.25% increase with a small outside chance of a 0.50% hike.
Upcoming Announcements:
• 03 November 09: AU Cash Rate
• 03 November 09: ISM Manufacturing PMI
• 03 November 09: Pending Home Sales
• 04 November 09: AU Retail Sales
• 04 November 09: US FOMC rate decision
By Sam Spink-McCarthy, Corporate Dealer
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